Regional Features of Birth Rate and Mortality during the Famine of 1932–1933 in the Byelorussian SSR

Abstract

The authors show that the dynamics of the birth rate of the BSSR population is characterized by a gradual drop from the mid-1920s to mid-1930s to a minimum in 1933–1934, with fluctuations within the limits of the trend; the death rate is generally stable with the similar fluctuation within the trend. The dynamics of the birth and death rates in 1933–1934 are shown as population waves with a maximum (fall) in seasonal birth (death) rate is compensated by its seasonal increase (drop). The death rate increase and negative natural growth of the population in the urban environment are localized and insignificant. For the majority of the BSSR, its demographic indicators are not pointing to a demographic crisis: either a high birth rate with a relatively low death rate was prevailing, or a drop in the birth rate didn’t result in the abrupt natural growth decrease, which remained positive. A lower birth rate and a higher death rate can be attributed to different causes other than famine. The only two regions with a high death rate and a negative natural growth of population were Narovlyansk and Elsk — two districts on the border with Ukraine. This is the exact area of the BSSR affected by the famine as confirmed by the official papers and the demographic indicators. The loss of the BSSR population due to the drop in birth rate in 1932–1934 is approximately 64,000 people; the direct decrease due to the death rate is 4,100 people; both are within the limits of the trend fluctuations and cannot be considered as a demographic crisis. In general, the indicators in the BSSR do not point to the demographic catastrophe.