HIV incidence in Russia: SIR epidemic model-based analysis

Abstract

The problem of predicting the incidence rate of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Russia is considered. The official morbidity levels were taken as initial data; for numerical modelling, the SIR model was applied to take into account the birth rate, mortality, as well as chemoprophylaxis and isolation of a group of infected but not epidemically dangerous patients. The search for the coefficients of the model is examined in detail using gradient descent with an auxiliary system applied. Various scenarios of the epidemic development are estimated, depending on the percentage of the number of patients who are undergoing therapy. The consequences of achieving the goals of the UNAIDS strategy 90–90–90 (90% people who are aware of their status, 90% among them are on HIV treatment and 90% among them are virally suppressed) are described. It is shown that upon reaching the target levels of involvement of patients in anti-epidemic measures, the number of infected people can be kept within 1% of the total population with a further decrease.