Dynamics of bank deposits in 2014–2015 under conditions of fluctuations in the Russian ruble exchange rate: Аnalysis and interpretation

Abstract

The Russian monetary system has been repeatedly influenced by many negative factors, the last of which was the 2014 devaluation of the ruble, a key element of the national monetary system. This resulted from a change in the Bank’s policy on exchange rate setting and new monetary decisions. At the same time, estimates by various analysts and representatives of the Ministry of Finance, Central Bank, and other official bodies and agencies are ambiguous and often cause confusion among ordinary citizens. The presentation and interpretation of dynamics of some money market indicators in the mass media, as resulting from Central Bank decisions, necessitates the study and application of such tools that produce unambiguous results. The main goal of this article is to study dynamics of bank deposits and exchange rates for the Russian ruble, Euro, and US dollar, to ascertain if dynamics of bank deposits in Russia reflect changes in public confidence in the national currency for mid-2014 the beginning of 2016. The study uses methods of comparative analysis, including graphic representation, consolidation, and correlation analysis, methods verified by Russian and foreign economists, of large data within a certain timeframe. Refs 19. Figs 6.