Tracing glacial refugia of the smooth newt (Lissotriton vulgaris) based on species distribution modelling

Abstract

We developed a Species Distribution Model based on environmental data for identification of the modern and the last glacial maximum (LGM, about 22 000 ybp) suitable habitats of the L. vulgaris and L. v. vulgaris. The relative contributions to the model of four variables (precipitation of driest quarter, temperature annual range, mean diurnal range and annual mean temperature) were high. Based on modern ranges of subspecies of L. vulgaris, paleontological records, and our distribution models, LGM refugia of L. v. vulgaris could located in western Europe, the Balkans, the Danube plains, the north-western coast of the Black Sea, and the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov. The analysis of data about the position of glacial refugia, modern distribution of mtDNA lineages and variation of the trunk vertebrae number allowed us to propose possible routes of post-Pleistocene dispersal of L. v. vulgaris. Refs 15. Figs 3. Tables 1.