The EU’s Indo-Pacific Strategy. Motivations, influences, challenges, and implications for China

Abstract

The European Union’s Indo-Pacific Strategy (EU’s IPS) is one of the most important geopolitical strategies of the EU in recent years, but the motivation behind the launching of this strategy, its influence and challenges, and the possible response of China as a major Indo-Pacific power, still need further study. Using various research methods including power transition paradigm, levels of analysis approach, as well as the traditional Chinese strategic framework of upper/middle/lower scenarios, the article endeavors to offer insights into the above research questions. The motivation of EU’s IPS is the ‘Geopolitical Awakening’ to avoid the negative results of potential great power rivalry during a period of global power transition. The IPS will accelerate the identity transformation of the EU from a ‘soft’ multilateralist to a ‘hard’ pole in the multi-polarized world, increase geopolitical uncertainty in Asia, and remodel China- EU-US strategic triangle. However, the implementation of the EU’s IPS will face multiple challenges, including gap in policy orientations among member states, different concerns of Indo-Pacific partners, and the EU’s awkward position in the US IPS. The EU’s IPS could bring about three possible scenarios of China-EU interaction in this region — pure confrontation, limited cooperation, or a positive-sum game. In this context, the Chinese government could effectively manage differences with the EU in Indo-Pacific, attempt to engage with the EU and together play a more active order-shaping role for the development of the region.