Strategies for the development of the Russian energy industry in the conditions of climate challenges and geopolitical instability

Abstract

The complication of the geopolitical situation, the growth of crisis processes, including in the energy and food sectors, the return of a number of “old” problems as significant, including increased inflation, rising cost of living, trade wars, large-scale social protests, etc., to a certain extent distracted the attention of states from solving the problems of the climate agenda. Against this background, it was not possible to overcome the trend towards an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with a special role in this energy. As a result, the achievement of the milestones agreed in Paris in 2015 to keep the temperature of the atmospheric air on the planet within the limits of an increase of 2 °C, with the most preferable option of 1.5 °C, was jeopardized. The complexity of the current climate situation and doubts about its easing in the application of traditional approaches stimulate a rethinking of the landmarks and instruments of climate policy and the energy transition associated with it at the global, subregional and national levels, as well as in strategic business decisions. Of particular interest in this context as a kind of benchmarking are the efforts of countries and regions that seek to take a leading position in these processes. As for Russia, the current situation, including uncertainty in the energy markets and price volatility, jeopardizes the export revenues of the budget and Russian companies, and the continued relevance of the climate agenda to reduce GHG emissions in the face of sanctions pressure and lack of access to the best available decarbonization technologies complicate green energy transition. In this context, the article examines the new accents of climate policy, reveals the leading priorities of the measures being implemented in Russia to adapt to the challenges of the green energy transition, and analyzes ways to update the Russian energy development strategy. Particular attention is paid to the substantiation and presentation of the author’s concept of alternative macro-scenarios for the development of the Russian energy sector and the development of the highest priority strategies for Russian fuel and energy enterprises to maintain their competitive positions in the face of structural shifts and the implementation of a moderate energy transition option.