Information flow of protest mobilization in the Russian segment of social media

Abstract

This article presents the results of applied political research dedicated to the analysis of information flows of protest mobilization in the Russian segment of the social media. The context of the research is conditioned by the increasing external information pressure, destructive activities of opposition political actors, as well as protest processes in neighboring countries, which are used to implement the technology of contagion and distribution of protest activity on the territory of the Russian Federation. The research methodology is based on the use of a hybrid strategy and a combination of modern methods of socio-media predictive analytics: cognitive mapping of digital content, automated social media analysis, social graph method, and oculometric (eye-track) analysis. According to the results of the study the authors made a conclusion about the significant impact of the special military operation in Ukraine on the level of protest potential in the society: at the start of the special operation the growth of protest sentiments was determined, in the process of implementation the decrease and growth of social consolidation. During 2022 the moderators of protest information flows, following the ‘catch-all’ strategy use a variety of triggers: violation of political rights and freedoms, social problems, new geopolitical challenges. Protest communities generating digital content aimed at protest audiences are characterized by high controllability and density of internal connections. The greatest mobilization efficiency was demonstrated by communities with a high proportion of opinion leaders. At the same time in the process of formation of protest information flows continues to use the technology of demonstration of ‘peaceful’ protest, which allows to scale the user audience. Users characterized by a restlessness, impulsiveness, risky behavioral patterns and an external locus of control demonstrated loyalty to protest content.