How will the conflict in Ukraine affect the system of international information security?

Abstract

The article is devoted to the consideration of the main changes taking place in the system of ensuring international information security after the start of a special military operation in Ukraine. An attempt is made to predict the challenges and risks that the IIS system will face in the future. The priority transformations are connected with the negotiation process within the UN, which, in the context of increasing political antagonism between the key subjects of the dialogue, is becoming increasingly politicized and is beginning to experience some difficulties. It is assumed that in the conditions of the new political reality, the issue of “comprehensive” counteraction to international cybercrime will remain unresolved. There is some fragmentation of the international information security system itself, which is experiencing centrifugal tendencies in terms of promoting alternative approaches to solving key issues in this sphere. Finally, it can be expected that the United States, in interaction with Russia, will more actively engage in a proactive strategy of so-called defend forward, which should be implemented through the concept of persistent engagement. The preliminary conclusions demonstrated by the actions in Ukraine regarding the role and place of cyber attacks directly within the framework of the armed conflict are also considered. It is assumed that in the near future cyber attacks will not be considered as a means of achieving real strategic effects on the battlefield, where conventional weapons play a dominant role. An attempt is made to give some recommendations on maintaining a certain dynamic of the development of the IIS system.