Assessing the risks of spatial disintegration in a state with a multinuclear territorial and political structure (on the example of Bolivia)

Abstract

This article carries out an assessment of risks of spatial disintegration using a methodology developed by the authors. The methodology makes it possible to quantify the danger of weakening, disruption, and destruction of the system-forming links between the administrative-territorial units of the country. The authors have identified seven factors of spatial disintegration: historical, socio-economic, domestic political, ethno-cultural, military-strategic, transport, and foreign policy. As an example of testing this technique, Bolivia was chosen as a state that has patterns of economic, political, socio-cultural development characteristic of most Latin American countries. But unlike most of them, Bolivia has a multi-core territorial and political structure: in the political field, the actual (La Paz) and constitutional (Sucre) capitals compete with an alternative pole of growth — the city of Santa Cruz de la Sierra in the flat east of the country. The Santa Cruz Department initiates and coordinates various innovations and projects aimed at increasing the autonomy of the east of the country or federalization of Bolivia. The calculations have shown that Bolivia has significantly higher risks of potential disintegration compared to several Latin American states (Mexico, Venezuela, Chile). Modern Bolivia is a contradictory system of two heterogeneous socio-cultural, economic and political regions — the mountainous West, inhabited by Aymara and Quechua, that economic development is based on the mining industry, and the plain East, populated by Creoles and Guarani, economically stimulated by natural gas production and more intensive agriculture. It is determined that the departments of Santa Cruz and Tarija have the greatest risks of spatial disintegration within Bolivia.