The role of the religious factor in the formation of conflict zones in Africa

Abstract

The article attempts to identify the impact of religious competition on the spatial development of conflict zones in Africa. On the basis of ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data) for 1997–2017, three conflict zoned were identified: the Sudan-Sahel Corridor, the periphery of the Catholic “domain” in the central part of the continent and the countries of the Lake Chad Basin. The results made it possible to clarify some findings and conclusions about the conflict potential of the macroregion obtained in civilizational studies. It is confirmed that most conflicts in Africa are located in the Sudan-Sahel Corridor (this territory roughly corresponds to the border of Islamic and African civilizations), primarily in countries with a fairly equal number of Christian and Muslim. Correlation analysis confirmed that such a confessional structure of the population is conflict-prone; it contributes to increased ferocity of conflicts. However, religion-based violence does not exclusively appear in the zones of competition between Islam and Christianity; there are other conflict zones where the emergence of conflicts is due to growing competition between branches of the same religion. On the periphery of the Catholic “domain” conflicts are currently ethno-political in nature, but their occurrence is ascribed largely to the competition between Catholic and Protestant missionary societies. The countries of the Lake Chad Basin are characterized by competition between Sunnism and Shiism. At the same time, this conflict zone is one of the largest “producers” of radical Islamist groups; the organization level of the latter is often higher than that of opposing state and international bodies. There is a close spatial connection between conflict zones. In this regard, countries belonging to several conflict zones are at higher risk of emergence of complex conflicts. The findings indicate a strong influence of the religious factor on the conflict potential of the African continent. The analysis of historical materials showed that the occurrence of conflicts in the identified conflict zones is determined primarily by the logic of African countries’ confessional space development and can be explained from the standpoint of the concept of competitive development of confessional geospace.