To the question of the limits of progress: Is singularity possible?

Abstract

This article explores the idea accepted in the social philosophy at the turn of 20th–21st century, that the exponential growth of the speed of progress results in the technological singularity. In natural science, the process characterized by initial exponential acceleration typically reaches a saturation phase and then develops according to another mathematical low. This does not mean to imply that the initial phase continues uninterruptedly, but may indeed consist of early outflows to the saturation phase and transition to plateaus of speed. If such a description is typical in natural science, would not predictions for science and technology, in general, be characterized by perhaps not apocalyptic conclusions but the appearance of such singularities? Would it not be expected from processes in natural science that the acceleration of scientific progress might be replaced by deceleration and a complete stoppage of acceleration? Mechanisms for retarding acceleration of info-communications are revealed in the adaptive capabilities of individual approaching planning horizons, and specifically in the investment in the military-industrial complex, which has its own logic representing a direct driving force for progress in the civil sphere. At the same time, despite possible dampening of acceleration of progress in science and technology, progress itself and social transformations will not stop, and will not even slow down, but continue with the speed, which will become permanent.