The influence of media on protest activities in post-soviet semi-authoritarian regimes

Abstract

Research Premises: With the so-called Color Revolutions in Eastern Europe and Central Asia as well as the Arab Spring, protests have become more widespread in authoritarian regimes. Therefore, it is interesting to analyze the challenges protest movements in authoritarian regimes have to face and how the media may influence the mobilization of protest participants. Relevance of the Research Topic: A lot of research focusing on the strong mobilizing effect of social media has been conducted regarding protests against authoritarian regimes. However, the results of this Master thesis do not fully support this focus. Each of the post-Soviet protest waves discussed in this study featured different media outlets instrumental for protest mobilization. Object of the Research: Seven protest waves in four post-Soviet countries will be analyzed in this study: The Orange Revolution (2004) and Euromaidan Revolution (2014) in Ukraine; the Tulip Revolution (2005) and the Second Kyrgyz Revolution (2010) in Kyrgyzstan; the Russian mass demonstrations in 2011/2012 and the Belarussian protests in 2010 and 2017. Aspect of the Research: Recent levels of Press and Internet Freedom in those four countries, changes to these levels caused by the protest waves, the most influential media outlets during protest mobilization, usefulness of access to traditional media (especially TV) and the long-term outcome of the protests will be examined. Research aim and Subgoals: Four research questions were defined for this Master thesis. RQ1: How did the media play a role in mobilizing the protest waves of the countries analyzed and which kind of media (traditional or social) was more influential? RG2: Would television coverage of protests be beneficial to a protest movements, so that large-scale demonstrations could be mobilized or is social media sufficient enough for that? RQ3: What is the current situation of Press and Internet Freedom in the countries analyzed and did the protest waves cause any changes to this situation? RG4: Did the protest waves bring about long-lasting political changes and democratic reforms or did they completely fail to initiate a democratizing process in the countries analyzed? Time Period: A period between 2004 and 2017 was selected. This timeframe is attractive to look at because two so-called color revolutions took place during this time in post-Soviet countries, as well as several failed attempts. Methods: In semi-structured expert interviews, researchers and journalists shared their deep knowledge on the seven protest waves, media spheres and political structures of the four countries analyzed. Sample: Eight semi-structured expert interviews were conducted in total. Two experts for each of the four countries were interviewed. Structure of the study: Chapter 1: Introduction; Chapter 2: Literature review; Chapter 3: Case study approach and background information on the seven protest waves analyzed; Chapter 4: Research method and questions, Chapter 5: Results; Chapter 6: Conclusion. Main Findings: 1. All seven protest movements used different media outlets to mobilize protest participants, such as TV, newspapers, social media, online news portals, calls and text messages on mobile phones and even word-of-mouth; 2. Access to TV would always be beneficial to a protest movement, because it’s still the main information tool in post-Soviet countries and gives information an air of truth and universality; 3. In most countries analyzed, the levels of Press and Internet Freedom has declined since the protest waves ended, because of issues like self-censorship, new repressive laws and intimidations of journalists etc.; 4. No meaningful, long-term politicization process could be initiated by the protest movements. Problems such as economic decline, introduction of new repressive laws against the opposition and independent media, steep regional divides and ethnic clashes can still be overserved.

Research Premises: With the so-called Color Revolutions in Eastern Europe and Central Asia as well as the Arab Spring, protests have become more widespread in authoritarian regimes. Therefore, it is interesting to analyze the challenges protest movements in authoritarian regimes have to face and how the media may influence the mobilization of protest participants. Relevance of the Research Topic: A lot of research focusing on the strong mobilizing effect of social media has been conducted regarding protests against authoritarian regimes. However, the results of this Master thesis do not fully support this focus. Each of the post-Soviet protest waves discussed in this study featured different media outlets instrumental for protest mobilization. Object of the Research: Seven protest waves in four post-Soviet countries will be analyzed in this study: The Orange Revolution (2004) and Euromaidan Revolution (2014) in Ukraine; the Tulip Revolution (2005) and the Second Kyrgyz Revolution (2010) in Kyrgyzstan; the Russian mass demonstrations in 2011/2012 and the Belarussian protests in 2010 and 2017. Aspect of the Research: Recent levels of Press and Internet Freedom in those four countries, changes to these levels caused by the protest waves, the most influential media outlets during protest mobilization, usefulness of access to traditional media (especially TV) and the long-term outcome of the protests will be examined. Research aim and Subgoals: Four research questions were defined for this Master thesis. RQ1: How did the media play a role in mobilizing the protest waves of the countries analyzed and which kind of media (traditional or social) was more influential? RG2: Would television coverage of protests be beneficial to a protest movements, so that large-scale demonstrations could be mobilized or is social media sufficient enough for that? RQ3: What is the current situation of Press and Internet Freedom in the countries analyzed and did the protest waves cause any changes to this situation? RG4: Did the protest waves bring about long-lasting political changes and democratic reforms or did they completely fail to initiate a democratizing process in the countries analyzed? Time Period: A period between 2004 and 2017 was selected. This timeframe is attractive to look at because two so-called color revolutions took place during this time in post-Soviet countries, as well as several failed attempts. Methods: In semi-structured expert interviews, researchers and journalists shared their deep knowledge on the seven protest waves, media spheres and political structures of the four countries analyzed. Sample: Eight semi-structured expert interviews were conducted in total. Two experts for each of the four countries were interviewed. Structure of the study: Chapter 1: Introduction; Chapter 2: Literature review; Chapter 3: Case study approach and background information on the seven protest waves analyzed; Chapter 4: Research method and questions, Chapter 5: Results; Chapter 6: Conclusion. Main Findings: 1. All seven protest movements used different media outlets to mobilize protest participants, such as TV, newspapers, social media, online news portals, calls and text messages on mobile phones and even word-of-mouth; 2. Access to TV would always be beneficial to a protest movement, because it’s still the main information tool in post-Soviet countries and gives information an air of truth and universality; 3. In most countries analyzed, the levels of Press and Internet Freedom has declined since the protest waves ended, because of issues like self-censorship, new repressive laws and intimidations of journalists etc.; 4. No meaningful, long-term politicization process could be initiated by the protest movements. Problems such as economic decline, introduction of new repressive laws against the opposition and independent media, steep regional divides and ethnic clashes can still be overserved.