Forecast and hedging of risks in decision-making by an investigator and a judge

Abstract

The study is aimed at determining the role and significance of forecasting in the professional activities of an investigator and a judge. Methodologically, the study is based on probability theory, signal theory, project management and risk management. The empirical basis of the study is criminal cases initiated against judges as well as against investigators and other law enforcement officials due to negligence. The data of judicial and criminal statistics are used. The author analyzes the empirical material and solves the problem of forecasting by applying the approach is due to the classification of investigative and judicial risks proposed by the author himself according to the nature and content of the consequences of their implementation on legal (formal and material) and social risks. A qualitative-quantitative methodology for assessing forensic and investigative risks developed by the author is proposed. The concept of hedging is introduced into scientific legal circulation as a system of ways to prevent or minimize the negative consequences of their occurrence. The main conclusion is made about the need for judges to master the scientific methods of forecasting and managing risks, as well as to establish clear criteria for liability for grave consequences as a result of gross judicial errors in forecasting.