Transformation of electoral expectations of Russians during the COVID-19 pandemic: Results of social media analysis

Abstract

The article presents the results of applied political research on the phenomenon of transformation of electoral expectations of Russian citizens during the COVID-19 pandemic. The context of the study is due to serious changes in public sentiment, formed under the influence of the negative effects of the pandemic. In the context of large-scale restrictions and increased volatility of political processes, among the key trends in the development of electoral expectations, the demand of citizens for the development of social institutions of the state and the development of new forms of social projects is fixed. Consequently, the subject of close attention of modern Russian researchers is the dynamics, structure and content of the processes of transformation of the electoral expectations. The category “socially-oriented information flow” introduced in the framework of this study combines a set of open digital footprints of Internet users that reflect the declaration of these social requirements. The research methodology is based on the use of a hybrid strategy and a combination of modern methods of social media predictive analytics: cognitive mapping of digital content, automated social media analysis of information flows and event analysis. Based on the results of the study, the authors made a conclusion about the formation of a trend of “social turn” in the development of electoral expectations of Russian citizens. During the COVID-19 pandemic, a fourfold increase in socially oriented information flow was recorded, which is popular among all age groups. Based on the selection of digital markers, the authors determined the most common value-ideological models in the information space, the conditions for the formation of a new “social contact” in Russia, as well as the role of various political actors in the articulation of public demands. The study determined the relationship between the dominant social and political requirements and the development of electoral processes, acting as a catalyst for these changes. The low degree of politicization and radicalization of public expectations testifies to the demand for maintaining the stability of political processes while changing the vector and content of social and economic policy.