The problem of US international obligations after withdrawal from Afghanistan: Is America ready to defend Taiwan?

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of the evolution of US foreign policy towards the Taiwan problem during the administration of Donald Trump and the beginning of Joe Biden’s presidency. The situation in the Taiwan Strait is analysed in the article in the context of the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan in August 2021. Despite the very specific selection of the administration’s personnel and the general impulsiveness of President Trump’s political decisions, his vision of the Taiwan problem coincided with a long-ripening desire in the ranks of the American political elite to get rid of self-restraint in relations with Taiwan in order to avoid open conflict with China. A result of the deterioration of US-China relations and Trump’s related pro-Taiwan initiatives was high tension in the Taiwan Strait zone, and a decrease of international support for Taiwan. At the same time, the complete destruction of the traditional American “policy of strategic ambiguity” still did not occur. Biden’s first steps have shown that while maintaining the appearance of a tough “Trump” approach to the problem, he is intent on stabilizing the situation around Taiwan. The new president seeks to maintain the level of ties with Taiwan achieved under Trump, while avoiding rash and provocative decisions. Overall, it can be argued that Taiwan is increasingly moving into the focus of American foreign policy. The withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan will not only not lead to a decrease in the level of American guarantees in the Taiwan Strait, but, on the contrary, it will make it possible to attract new resources here.