The many facets of the Russian probe

Abstract

This article presents an analysis of the Russian probe of 2016–2019. The author defines the Russian probe as a complex of investigations originated at different chronological stages by various institutions and communities with regard to Russian meddling in US domestic processes. Distinctive facets of the Russian probe and the varied nature of claims and allegations are reviewed. The author, constituting a two dimensional binary matrix, offers a classification of Russian inquiries based on the chronological characteristics and essence of the case as well as chronology of initiation and institution in charge. The author puts forward and supports a hypothesis stating that the Russian probe is an independent variable of the US political agenda and should not be considered as a byproduct of internal political struggle. The mere personality of the new president, political elite’s rejection of Donald Trump, his Russian contacts, and potential predisposition to Russia does not necessarily stipulate initiation of the Russian probe. The author raises and responds to a set of research questions which include but are not limited to: a) does the Russian probe have an electoral dimension only? b) does it have a pure anti-Trump nature? c) was the Russian probe launched following the US presidential election and ignited by the elections? d) does it have a homogenous institutional architecture? Which means of investigations were initiated and conducted by the same institution or did they have a multi-institutional origin? e) if outcomes of varied investigations do not concur, do they have anything in common? And finally, f) will the Russian probe eliminate all risks and threats of the nature under consideration to the USA? The author comes to a conclusion about the inevitability of the Russian probe no matter which candidate would have won the presidency in 2016 and confirms the inability of investigation results to cope with risks of compromising domestic processes.