Internal armed conflict in North-Eastern Eurasia in the early 21st century: transformation and prospects for ending the conflict

Abstract

This article examines the Internal Armed Conflicts that have emerged in the Post-Soviet space. They were the product of Post-Socialist Society, and Ethnic Nationalism was the main reason for their origin and development. As a result, the Post-Soviet Space has largely restructured thanks to eight Internal Armed Conflicts, which brought many Post-Soviet countries and peoples enormous human losses, flows of refugees and displaced persons, great material losses and the cost of their recovery. To date, most of these Conflicts have been Resolved, and the two Conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh and Transnistria remain frozen. However, approximately since 2008 (the “five-day war” between Russia and Georgia), a New Stage in the development of Internal Armed Conflicts has begun. There have been several recurrences with Internal Armed Conflicts (in Karabakh, Kyrgyzstan) and a new Internal Armed Conflict in the South-East of Ukraine. It is interesting that the Crimea, which was characterized by an increased conflict of different kinds, managed to change its status exclusively peacefully. The Post-Soviet Space is now virtually a thing of the Past. It was divided into several small geographical regions. Conventionally, all these regions can be called North-Eastern Eurasia. At present, Ethnic Nationalism is no longer the dominant factor in Internal Armed Conflicts, it is driven primarily by Geopolitical considerations and National Interests of World and Regional powers, International Organizations and Political Networks. Central among the modern Internal Armed Conflicts of North-Eastern Eurasia is the clash in the South-East of Ukraine, which is inscribed in the wider Ukrainian crisis and demonstrates the constant confrontation between the United States and the European Union with Russia or Ukraine and the Russian Federation. Geopolitical and Geo-Economic threats, various forms of Hybrid War, arms supplies to the parties to the conflict in the South-East of Ukraine all make the situation explosive for the entire system of International Relations.