Conflict analysis of the situation around the Rogun hydroelectric power station using Analytic Network Process

Abstract

The article discusses the conflict around the construction of the Rogun HEPS. On the one hand, for Tajikistan, the hydropower plans can solve the actual problem of energy deficit, on the other — for Uzbekistan and neighboring states — this is a threat of environmental and social problems. The purpose of the study is a conflict analysis and justification for the implementation of the project for the commissioning of the Rogun HEPS by Tajikistan to December 2018, as a result of which the significance of the probability of this event is determined. A meaningful model of the situation includes object, subjects, their interests, the chronology of the conflict. Also it was used the expert method of Analytic Network Process (ANP) Thomas L. Saaty with the help of proprietary software Super Decisions. In order to describe advantages and disadvantages of the decision, experts created hierarchies of Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks with the same alternatives. As a result, the probability of the project implementation at the planned time was very high. So, the construction of the hydroelectric power station is positive for the economy, policy and social sphere, and it is associated with the least risks. However, changing the regional and international conditions can change the ratio not in favor of construction, which requires additional research. The analytical tools presented in the article can be an effective tool in the expert forecasts.