Ex-ante identification of disruptive innovations

Abstract

Nowadays, there is huge demand for forecasting tool, which would enable managers to understand the nature of disruptive innovation in particular technological category, predict market changes and adjust firm strategy accordingly. At the same time, the origins of disruptive innovations are still not extensively studied. Understanding of the origins of disruptive innovations is crucial for the companies. On one hand, knowledge of the origins of disruptive innovations helps organizations to develop more effective market analysis tools, enhance its approach to technology forecasts and opportunity recognition. On the other hand, it helps to tackle spaces for enhancements of innovating activities within firm: project selection and prioritization mechanisms; allocation of people in teams; innovation stimulating policies and incentive systems; attraction and employment of people with particular sets of skills; selection of partner organizations for fruitful cooperation and synergy in research efforts. Scholarly research provides valuable findings on classification of innovations according to different attributes as well as the outcomes of particular innovation types on incumbent companies and newcomers. Yet, research gap exists in identifying the origins of disruptive innovations.