Multiple Sectors DSGE Model of Russia

Abstract

A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with multiple sectors is constructed. The production is divided into 5 sectors: 1) mining; 2) manufacturing; 3) electricity, gas and water; 4) trade, transport and communication; 5) other. The model is estimated in 29 time-series of Russian statistical data. The model produces high quality out-of-sample forecasts (better than auto regressions). The consequences of export price decline, restriction of access to foreign finance, tighter monetary policy and higher government spending are computed. Refs 18. Figs 5. Table 1.