The concept “security dilemma” on analysing the dynamics of ethnopolitical conflicts

Abstract

According to the B.Pozen’s concept, a “security dilemma” occurs in situations of weakness or collapse of central authorities. Consequentially, if public institutions do not undertake eff orts to prevent the politicisation of ethnicity, to provide communication between ethnic groups and to allow their claims (or do not have the capacity and resources to do so), than the risk that ethnic groups will face the security dilemma increases. This opens a “window of opportunity” for “ethnic entrepreneurs”. However, the ethnopolitical mobilisation of one group may interpreted by the other as a threat, especially in the presence of negative historical experience in their relationship. It’s not surprising that many researchers into ethnic conflicts have strong beliefs that such conflicts generate a sense of security threats between members of one ethnic group, in a situation when they do not know the intention of the opposing group to which they are hostile or who ascribe a hostile intent. It does not matter whether the threat is real or not: according to Thomas’ theory, if people define situations as real, it is real in its consequences. As a result, groups begin to present their differences with the opposing group as a threat to security for members of the community. These perceived (either traceable or provoked) threats can serve as incentives for preventing attacks or ethno-political mobilisation of other groups as a response, which in turn can be interpreted by the leaders of the other groups as a threat to their security. Thus, “the efforts of each participant to ensure their own security, on the contrary, increases the probability of armed conflict”, because they generate a mobilisation spiral, and can lead to the initiation of violent acts. Refs 15.