LETTER OF ASSESSMENT Master’s thesis by the 2nd year student Concentration – MITIM Liana Sadykova COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF PROJECT COST FORECASTING METHODS BASED ON EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT The project is devoted to project management forecasting. The goal of the research is to identify the most accurate and precise deterministic EVMbased approach to project final cost forecasting and the factors affecting its performance. At the first stage of the work the following tasks were defined: 1. To find possible forecasting methods based on the earned value and classify them. Then select a deterministic approach (XSM or GGM) which produces the most accurate and precise forecasts. 2. To understand how early and middle stage levels of forecasting accuracy commensurate with the late stage level. 3. Find out differences in forecasting models between selected sectors (IT and construction) and evaluate a smoothing parameter (beta) possible interval for each forecasting model. 4. Provide a forecasting tool which could be easily used by SMEs to monitor the project realisation. The main outcomes of the work are the following: 1. Well-developed theoretical part, which includes forecasting methods classification, forecasting models description, forecast simulation for almost 50 projects (finished and ongoing), EVM fundamentals, use and limitations. 2. Deep and professional analysis of XSM and GGM forecasting approaches. 3. Practical recommendations for managers including advantages and weak points for different forecasting models. This study added up by verifying the aforementioned methods on a larger number of construction projects and software development projects compared to the previous studies. 4. The decision support tool in the form of MS Excel spreadsheet based on XSM was developed with step-by-step application instruction. It’s especially pleasant for me to note that Liana established a professional dialogue with the scientist, whose papers regarding smoothing techniques in earned value management have been published in rated journals. Summarising all mentioned above, we note that the master’s thesis meets the requirements of MITIM program and does deserve the highest mark (Excellent, B). Academic Advisor Candidate of EconomicSciences, Iya Churakova, Associate Professor, Operational Management Department May 30, 2017